Omicron Variant: When Will the Pandemic End?
Cases caused by the Delta and Omicron variant disrupted the return to normality in high-income nations, initially in the South Africa, Hong Kong, to EU then to United Kingdom, where a midsummer increase of cases prompted authorities to postpone relaxing public-health restrictions, and more recently in the United States and across the globe. The Delta and Omicron variant causes a more short-term burden of the disease, which results in more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
The Omicron and Delta strain increases the disease burden in the near term by increasing the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Delta’s high transmissibility also complicates achieving herd immunity: a greater proportion of a population must be immune to prevent Delta from spreading within that population. The data from World Economic Forum confirms the conclusion of others that the Omicron and Delta variant has essentially eliminated herd immunity in the majority of nations for the time being, while certain places may come closer to it.
The Vaccination
While vaccinations used in Western countries continue to be extremely successful at avoiding serious illness caused by COVID-19, recent evidence from Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States cast doubt on their capacity to prevent infection with the Delta strain. Serial blood tests indicate that immunity may be rapidly waning. This has encouraged a number of high-income nations to begin administering booster doses to at-risk people or to prepare for their implementation. Additionally, data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that vaccinated individuals who get the Delta strain may easily spread it.
The End of the Beginning
These occurrences and conclusions have reintroduced doubts regarding the pandemic’s end date. However, the world’s experience implies that after a nation has weathered a Delta-driven surge of cases, it may be able to ease public health safeguards and regain normalcy. But Omicron is lurking and set to be the dominant variant of 2022.
Beyond that, a more realistic epidemiological goal may be reached not when herd immunity is acquired, but when nations can manage COVID-19 as an endemic illness. The greatest threat to a country’s capacity to do so would thus likely be the appearance of a new variant that is more transmissible, more likely to result in hospitalizations and fatalities, or more capable of infecting those who have been vaccinated.
Raising immunization rates is critical for establishing a state of normality. However, vaccine hesitancy has proved to be a persistent obstacle to avoiding the spread of the Omicron strain and achieving herd immunity.
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