How Point Spreads Are Determined
If you are someone that keeps an eye on NFL lines then you already know that there are three main bets that show up. These three bets are moneyline, spread, and over/under, and each betting option is completely different.
The most common NFL bet that is made is what is known as betting against the spread, and these spread betting lines are talked about by NFL fans each weekend. Spread bets aren’t exactly easy to make, and it can sometime be hard to understand why the odds are what they are.
Setting a point spread still isn’t an exact science by the bookmakers, but it looks like that at times. The NFL spreads are often extremely close to what the final score is, and this can be frustrating for bettors.
NFL point spreads used to be set by a bookmaker that did some research on the matchup, but there is more data and technology available now. There are certain formulas that help set the betting point spreads, and it’s all based on probability.
These NFL spread odds take a close look at the probability of the outcome of an NFL game and then that is how teams become favorites or underdogs. A half-point is used a majority of the time when setting a spread to make things even more difficult for the bettor.
Sportsbooks don’t simply set the point spreads at a certain line as a way to beat the customers, because customers can always take the points also. This has to be a calculated odd that is set, and bookmakers have an extremely important job.
Simulations are also run to check for accuracy of the probability before odds are set. These simulations can be ran thousands of times before the final odds are revealed.
Another factor in determining the spread for an NFL game is how much action will be taken on each side of the bet. These sportsbooks want people to bet on the game, and the odds have to be “fair” so that bettors don’t simply ignore what is out there.
Why Do Spreads Move?
Not only will you see spreads set a few days ahead of each NFL game, but you might also see these point spreads move from time to time. This happens for a number of different reasons, but usually it is the bettors that determine the movement of the odds.
If sportsbooks are seeing too much action on one side of the bet then the odds will be adjusted slightly. In a perfect world, there is no more than 60 percent of all bets placed on one team, because that could result in a big loss for the sportsbook.
Spread betting lines also move due to injury or other information that becomes available for a certain game. An injury to a starting quarterback will change how that game will play out and will then change the odds as well.
If you notice that the spreads have moved then you also need to do some research to try and determine how or why that took place.
When to Bet Against the Spread
Spread betting is easily the most popular when it comes to the NFL, but it’s not the only option. Moneyline betting is also available, and this is actually the easiest way to bet on professional football.
Betting against the spread should only be done if you have a good feeling about how a certain game will play out. This type of bet will also result in a much larger payout than a moneyline bet in nearly every instance.
There are also going to be times when you should avoid betting against the spread, and it’s important to know the difference.
